Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
